My Predictions

Early and absentee voting is low.  Jimmy Carter would call it a malaise. The last job report is scary and you would think folks would be running to vote, but they are not.  So this makes it very difficult to figure out who wins and loses in the upcoming races.

I predict that Martin Heinrich will defeat Hector Balderas.  Both of these guys deserve a pat on the back for running a decent and clean campaign that sticks to issues rather than character assassinations.  It is the kind of primary contest that used to be more common.  I might be wrong, but since there is little outside super pac money being spent in this race it has helped keep it civil.  Balderas has done himself a big favor here and will certainly get my support when he runs again.  He is a gentleman.  Martin, a good friend, will have to go forward under an onslaught of Karl Rove super pac money during the general election for a retreaded Heather Wilson.  My first reaction in seeing one of her TV commercials was, "Oh, her again."

The congressional race is a toss up!  I have no idea who might win that one.  Either Eric Griego, who squandered a big lead with bad TV and media, or Michelle Grisham Lujan who surged based on good TV and media.  Marty Chavez will join me on the dustbin of New Mexico political history.  It is really not so bad given the kind of money politics that is played today.  You can see it at work in this congressional race where outside pacs are throwing mud by the cubic yard at the candidates.  It is sickening to see this intramural gutter politics in the democratic party.

The one positive thing here is that Obama still has a hefty lead in this state.  That will help Heinrich and the winner of the congressional race next November.