Brian Sanderoff's poll in the Albuquerque Journal today pretty much indicates to me that the Albuquerque Congressional race now hinges on the ground game, as I mentioned last week. (It won't mean much for Marty Chavez who is too far back.) Michelle Grisham Lujan's excellent media brought her a long way.
And so, Eric Griego's disastrous TV ads and less than inspiring aired debate performance, while not good, might not be the deal killer. The only thing that needs to be done now is getting voters to the polls and my observation is that Eric has that game under control. If Eric does win then the Democratic Party and other democratic candidates will need to insist that Eric get new media help. And do it immediately. His performance will help or hurt the rest of the ticket. His whole campaign management team might need some tweaking should he win the primary.
Certainly, Martin Heinrich should look into offering a little advice. He looks to be a sure thing in winning his primary against another good candidate, Hector Balderas who wasn't quite ready for prime time. Once again, Hector has a good future but he needs to figure out a way of getting more support in areas outside of the northern central part of the state.
Meanwhile, early and absentee voting is about half of what it was in the last two elections. GOTV is everything.
1 comment:
New Mexico is in the lowest tier of states as far as median income, at under $45,000 per family. It's also near the top in terms of income inequality. In other words, lots of poor folks, a few very well off and rich folks.
See:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/income.html
And click the link near the bottom:
Household Income for States: 2009 and 2010 American Community Survey
You're a very smart strategist, working within the reality of party politics which is where elections take place in this country.
The reality of party politics completely ignores the reality I point to above.
If the Democratic Party represented poor folks, instead of well off people with a social conscience and well off people willing to sacrifice half the working class vote every election on the altar of a woman's right to choose, I don't think they'd have to worry much about the turnout.
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