The Research and Polling poll in the Journal today shows the democratic Governor's primary election up for grabs just 9 days out from counting the votes. Gary King is still out in front but his six point lead doesn't look real strong with nearly 30% of likely voters still wondering what they should do. In fact, it looks like that percentage has increased which is not that great a thing for Gary. Being ahead is good, but in reality that is as good as it will get. Right now the other front running candidates have some thinking to do. Lawrence Rael and Alan Webber are tied for second and they have to be thinking about some deal making with other lower rated candidates. It will be a busy week for them all.
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At the end of the Journal article it states that 73% of the voters contacted own land lines. Land line phones are the horse and buggy of communication. I'm assuming that the majority of voters that were contacted are senior citizens who probably voted for Bruce King in the 1960s. It would have been a more accurate poll, if they contacted more voters that own cell phones.
The Journal headline should have read "undecided" leads the poll. Undecided was 29% with King at 22%, a huge margin. King will not pull much more of the Democratic vote leaving Rael and Webber with a real shot at an upset. The question is will the nomination be worth very much given the Martinez war chest. Martinez will spend a million a month on media. The Journal wants King to be the nominee with its endorsement because the paper knows King will be the easiest to peel off the Hispanic Democrats to vote for Susana Martinez. Webber and Rael will still be a longshot to beat Martinez. Morales and Lopez need to pull back and just stop campaigning and get behind one of the top three if they really want Martinez out of office.
This poll was done prior to Gary going on the air. That alone wil give him a bump.
The poll shoes Martinez with a real good chance of reelection. Do nothing governor still harping about Richardson and she has a real good chance. What does that say about us, the Democratic voter. what does it say about the candidates, all of them. Personally, I will back Rael. Maybe he can do something. King is soiling his reputation, but I do see why he is doing that. Morales, lets wait and see. Lopez is a gadfly. And who knows about Webber. I will support the winner.
The candidate with the most momentum at the present time has the best chance of being elected on June 3rd. Howie Morales is popular in the southern and southwest part of the state with 37% of those polled there favoring the State Senator from Silver City. However, the more populated north central part of New Mexico will be voting largely for Webber and Rael so it's clear to me that the two candidates who will take most of that "undecided vote" are Webber and Rael. Yesterday, The Santa Fe New Mexican endorsed Alan Webber for Governor with a very strong editorial that made the case why Webber is the strongest candidate to take on Martinez.
I'm still waiting for Rael or Webber to show me something really good... or really bad. they are the only candidates with half a chance of beating the Governatrix.
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