The Poll

Here is the memo from my Pollsters at Lake Research. I will win this election if I raise adequate funds to fight my opponents massive infusions of oil and gas money. It is great to be ahead of an incumbent four months before the election, but the thought of his bank roll is scary.

I especially like the part about the public's trust on who better takes care of the environment.

To: Interested Parties

From: Lake Research Partners

Date: July 5, 2006

Re: Recent Poll Findings on NM Land Commissioner Race

A recent survey of likely voters in New Mexico reveals that, if the election were held today, Jim Baca would defeat incumbent Pat Lyons in the race for Commissioner of Public Lands.^[1] Lyons is highly vulnerable to a challenge from Baca, already trailing him by 5 points, 38 percent for Baca to 33 percent for Lyons, with just under 3 in ten voters undecided (29 percent). Baca holds an even greater advantage among a key group of swing voters: independents. Among independent voters, Baca leads Lyons by a 12-point margin, 34 percent to 22 percent, with 43 percent undecided.

Lyons’ tenure as Land Commissioner has left the voters dissatisfied and looking for change. His problems are two-fold: he is still largely unknown to the public 4 years into his term; additionally, among those voters who are familiar with Lyons, he is perceived to be doing a bad job as Land Commissioner. Just 22 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Lyons, 8 percent have an unfavorable opinion, and fully 70 percent of voters either have no opinion or have never heard of him.

Voters’ ratings of Lyons’ performance as Land Commissioner are even more critical. Twenty percent of voters believe Lyons is doing an excellent or good job as State Commissioner of Public Lands, compared to 29 percent who believe he is doing just a fair or poor job. Fully half of voters don’t know what kind of job Lyons is doing.

Finally, in a state that is closely divided in terms of partisanship, the office of Land Commissioner is a rare exception where voters are more likely to defer to a Democrat. When asked which Party they trust more when it comes to protecting public lands and the environment, regardless of which candidate they are supporting in the race, 46 percent choose the Democratic Party compared to 29 percent who say the Republicans would do a better job. In a close race, Baca’s partisan advantage could help solidify his lead over Lyons.

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[1] Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers. The survey reached 400 adults, 18 years or older, in New Mexico who are registered to vote and likely to vote in the 2006 general election. The survey was conducted from June 27-29, 2006. The margin of error for the poll is +/-4.9%.