No one really will win with a shut down of the federal government. The republicans and tea party types will lose slightly more however, just like they did when Newt Gingrich shut down the government in the mid 90's. The biggest losers would be the public, even though most of them would disagree.
Once again, look at our "Land of Enchantment." New Mexico is a government fueled state that has mostly faired better than most parts of the country because of the national labs and military infrastructure. Kirtland AFB, Cannon AFB, Holloman AFB, White Sands Missile Range, Fort Bliss, Tx, and Sandia and Los Alamos employ a lot of people in New Mexico with good paying jobs. And they all will suffer as the budget cutters go postal. How does a guy like Congressman Steve Pearce square this with his constituents?
If a shutdown does occur the military will be safe. They are good at camouflage so Pearce can skate on that one. But, if you old folks have problems with medicare or social security then just live with it.
Certainly, entitlement programs need to be fixed. That includes higher taxes and cuts. Both. But the lunatic fringe in the congress doesn't see that two way approach. I think in the end the fringe will be lopped off.