Dennis Gets It Right

My friend Dennis Jett, retired from the US State Department as a career Diplomat and Ambassador, has a great Column today in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette.

Excuse me, but we never ‘won’ in Iraq
Don’t blame Obama for the rise of the Islamic State; its roots go deeper than that
October 16, 2014 12:00 AM

By Dennis Jett

It’s often been said that generals always fight the last war, especially if they think they won it. That old adage remains as true today as it was when the Maginot Line was built in the 1930s to prevent a second German invasion of France. And it is as true for politicians as it is for generals.

The proof can be found in the current debate about the so-called Islamic State, a terrorist organization so vile that even al-Qaida disowned it. While it may not be popular with fellow thugs, the Islamic State has managed to take over much of Iraq and Syria. Predictably, Washington seems more interested in assigning blame for the situation than dealing with it.

Sen. John McCain, for instance, said this about the war in Iraq: “We had it won. Gen. [David] Petraeus had the conflict won, thanks to the surge. If we had left a residual force behind, we would not be facing the crisis we are today. Those are fundamental facts. We had a stable government. But the president wanted out, and now we are paying a very heavy price.”

None of these “facts” is true. The Bush administration laid the groundwork for today’s mess when it negotiated a Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government that stipulated American combat troops would be gone by the end of 2011. The Obama administration tried to negotiate a continuation of their presence, but the Iraqi government refused unless U.S. troops were subject to the Iraqi judicial system, a condition to which no president would agree. No Iraqi politician was going to agree without that provision. So, goodbye U.S. troops.

The surge also did not “win” the war. It won only a temporary lull in a civil war that started when American officials disbanded the Iraqi army and kicked members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party out of their government jobs. That left all the people who used to run the country (ruthlessly) with no stake in its future. They were not simply going to go home and quietly watch their children go hungry.

Instead they ignited an insurgency that grew into civil war, which the surge was supposed to extinguish. If there is any historical fact that Mr. McCain should have absorbed it is this: Vietnam demonstrated that American troops cannot win a civil war for a regime that is incapable of defending itself. Iraqi security forces outnumber those of the Islamic State by 20 to one but show no willingness to fight.

The service and sacrifice of our troops in Iraq was incredible, especially since the only thing most of us on the home front ever did to support the war was to take George W. Bush’s advice to “go shopping.” That sacrifice notwithstanding, a surge of 30,000 troops in a country of 28 million people, especially when 25,000 never left Baghdad, was not going to win the war or even do much to reduce the carnage.

Two other things brought about the lull in fighting. First, many of the foreign jihadis who joined the fray alienated the Iraqis. Second, and most important, many of those who used to have those jobs in the military and government were put back on the payroll. Once they began drawing paychecks again, they started defending the existing political order instead of trying to destroy it.

The relative calm lasted as long as the insurgents were kept employed. When the Americans stopped paying them, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki continued to do so, but only for a time. He was more interested in converting the Iraqi armed forces and police into a Shiite militia loyal to him than he was in keeping happy Sunni supporters of the former regime. When they lost their paychecks, they resumed the civil war and many became members of what we now know as the Islamic State.

The man Mr. McCain claims won the war is the same David Petraeus who wrote in The Washington Post that “Iraq’s security forces are developing steadily and they are in the fight. Momentum has gathered in recent months. With strong Iraqi leaders out front and with continued coalition support, this trend will continue.” That gushingly optimistic article was published in September 2004. Six weeks later, Mr. Bush was reelected and a little over two years after that Mr. Petraeus pinned on his fourth star. Mission accomplished.

The Iraqi leaders Mr. Petraeus praised are as responsible for restarting the civil war in 2014 as American officials are for creating it in 2004. But don’t expect the architects of the Iraqi disaster to admit that. They prefer to echo the McCain version of history.

In a lengthy article for Foreign Policy titled “How We Won in Iraq,” Mr. Petraeus credits the “victory” to the surge of American troops. He mentions only in passing that putting 100,000 insurgents on the payroll might have had something to do with it. He spends most of the article praising those who worked with him and by extension himself. He throws in three sentences at the end describing how to regain “victory” — all that is required is a “surge of ideas.”

Mr. Petraeus mentions Mr. al-Maliki seven times, but never critically. He praises him for being “willing to undertake the vast majority of the necessary changes” when it is clear that the former prime minister’s corruption, incompetence and relentless sectarian exclusionism has made Iraq what it is today.

Mr. Petraeus will be speaking in Pittsburgh Oct. 28. For $25 to $65, you can hear about how he won the war.

At Sea

The Governor of New Mexico and the Mayor of Albuquerque are once again silent on the issue of the day.  Ebola is in Dallas with a second patient diagnosed at the hospital where a nurse is also down with the virus.  Of course Governor Rick Perry took the advantage of free air time to talk about the disease, and promptly made a fool of himself.

Has the Mayor or Governor ordered the State medical infrastructure to give them a report on how they would respond to the discovery of any cases here?  They really should insist on a public statement from both government and private medical providers about this.  But they remain in the cocoon of silence, hoping for the best.  That is GOP leadership these days.  Do nothing.

And then there was former republican and now libertarian Governor Gary Johnson on TV last night suggesting that marijuana might be helpful in the crisis.  At the least it would make us feel calm.  And at least he is saying something!

Misc.

The Albuquerque Journal had an excellent story on the problem of high school dropouts this morning in Albuquerque.  You can cite  poverty  as the main reason so many kids leave school.  It was an important story but somehow the reporter never got around to talking to the Governor or Mayor to see if they had any ideas on how to help with this issue.  Some people are arguing on the Journal facebook page that they don't have any responsibility for the problem.  That is arguing that elected officials are not supposed to be leaders.  Of course that is exactly what we have to deal with in Albuquerque's City Hall and the State Capitol.  No leadership.

I have talked to someone who is putting all of their travel plans on hold for the future until the Ebola outbreak is contained.  I can understand that, but one thing I don't get is how people can think Ebola is so dangerous while climate change is not!  They are very selective in the science the choose to accept I suppose.

Maggie Toulouse Oliver, Democratic candidate for Secretary of State, will go up on TV with ads soon.  I watched it and it is professionally done.  It has probably been done for some time, but I suggest that she get another one together talking about the voter suppression attempted by her opponent and the Governor.  Even the US Supreme Court has ruled against such attempts. We really need her in this office, so send her some money. 

And while you are at it send Democratic Land Commissioner Ray Powell a few bucks to keep the Land Office from being totally controlled by the oil and gas industry.

Signaled

Republican Senate Candidate and war profiteer Alan Weh has signaled the direction he would take as a U.S. Senator.  He was caught on tape at an Albuquerque Business gathering by saying, "so what?" to the dilemma of people making $4 an hour.  He doesn't think anyone under the age of 26 should get a minimum wage.  This is your modern day republican speaking in front of members of the Economic Forum in Albuquerque.  These are the supposed movers and shakers in our business community.  Except they have been sitting on their collective butts for years by protecting what they have rather than growing the economy in this state.  They are leaderless and bereft of ideas.  It hasn't always been like this with those folks, but something has happened to these once community minded people.  It is a very sad situation.

The whole question of a minimum wage hike in this country should get more attention, especially in New Mexico.  I remember my first job at a lumber yard back in 1963 provided me with a $1.25 an hour wage.  I lived on that for a summer before starting at the University.  I also earned minimum wage in my other jobs while in school and I got regular raises.  This was back when the income tax rates were high and the economy was booming and the local business leaders were good at what they did and were generous in giving resources to the community.

Gary King's campaign finally has some TV time purchased.  His  new ad is effective on the minimum wage and the Governor Martinez era meltdown of the economy here.  But, it probably is too little and too late to make a difference.

Food for Thought

I am somewhat bothered about reaching back into the 90's for a democratic presidential candidate for the next go round.  Of course I would vote for the democrat, whom ever it is, but the thought of having another Clinton or Bush in office makes me think this country just can't move on.  Yesterday I blogged about the ability of the internet to hold us back from progress.  My favorite blogger, Bubba Munster, posted this comment yesterday and I wanted to put it on the main page.  It should get you thinking.

"That's true about the right wing internet. It's a vast area you might not even be aware of unless you stumble upon it. 

When I was on Facebook I'd see an occasional posting from my brother Bill, the family Republican (married a Baptist preacher's daughter and, I think, got caught up in the ecstasy). They have their own memes and web sites, tea bagger sites, news sites, and it's all interconnected. The Left might take a look and see how it's done.

But it's pretty dumb, too. Bill never posted a single a thing that I couldn't easily point out the central flaw in. But it never mattered, either. With them, it's not an intellectual endeavor, it's emotional. Their heart is stirred by odes to entrepreneurial spirit or Ronald Reagan's city on a hill and they are made afraid by scary religions and images of brown hoards and a disappearing America that never existed.


The dumbing down of America may well be unstoppable, but there was a previous America that wasn't well educated, either, and it managed to assume quite a bit of political power, which was expressed through unions and various Socialist and Populist parties and by the Democratic Party, eventually.

For all of the benefits of our post WWII public education system, that was remarkable in educating people and making college open to practically all who wanted to attend, that generation, of the well educated, hasn't been able to stop public education's ongoing gutting, nor the dumbing down, nor the evisceration of anything else from the New Deal era like increasingly higher wages and living standards.

The reason: Democrats stopped being a class based party and became Republicans who are socially liberal, and stood by doing nothing while war was waged on the unions.

The only thing that will unite working people, that ever has, is class identity. It will unite people across region, race, gender and ethnicity. The rich have it, but they've managed to make working people believe we live in a classless society. And they have waged Reaganomics, which is nothing but a war of the ruling class against the working class, a scheme for the massive redistribution of wealth upward, and the Democratic Party eventually went along with it.

It all started back in the 70s with Bill Clinton and Al Gore and their Democratic Leadership Council, and Tony Coehlo, the congressman from California, when he was put in charge of fundraising and said we should go after all that Wall Street money, and they did.

Now you have New Mexico Democrats who won't even utter the word "union" in public, who veer far, far away from anything that hints of populism, whose campaigns and votes once in office make mockeries of working peoples' economic interests, as they slash rich peoples' taxes ever further, cut Medicare and Social Security, cut veteran's benefits, cut Head Start, and look away as college becomes a disappearing dream for more and more kids. But they're fighting hard to save the middle class. Just listen to them."

Without a Clue Rant

The Albuquerque Journal profiles on our local congressional candidates shows just how clueless and out of touch most republican candidates are in the current era.  Michelle Lujan Grisham's opponent wants to cut down rules and regs in the federal government and turn over most responsibilities to the state.

Think Texas.  Those folks there let a man from western Africa loose from a hospital with out even checking to see if he had Ebola.  He is dead and the private sector hospital and the Governor's office under Rick Perry seem rather stupid.  (In Perry's case--stupider.)

Is now really the time to be saying that the CDC, who has taken budget hits from republicans, should turn over its responsibilities to states?  Think Susana Martinez.  Would she fund a state agency correctly to do such work, or would she continue to find ways to cut corporate taxes for our corrupt business system in the country.

Sometimes the dumbing down of America seems unstoppable.  The downside of the internet is that it let morons become organized and manipulated by the wealthy right wing.  

Early Golf

Santa Ana

GOP Killers

I am sorry, but the hysteria about Ebola is misplaced.  People should not be angry that our infrastructure for containing outbreaks has holes in it. They should be angry at republicans for cutting CDC's budgets.  The agency works with much less resources than they have in the past because of the reckless and uncaring budget cutting of the ultra right wingers in congress.  Maybe they should be turned into front line healthcare workers in this current crisis.  These are the guys who hate government, except when you need them and they can't respond because of the actions of these guys.

Especially in Texas.  Last night I watched a Frontline presentation on the execution of a father who was accused of setting a fire that killed his three daughters.  All of the evidence that was collected was proven wrongly validated.  All that idiot Governor Perry could say was essentially, Meh!

I really don't understand what has happened to that party.  I know all republicans are not idiots, any more than all democrats are honest, but the silence of the moderates is somewhat akin to the silence of most of the peaceful Muslims in the world.  If you don't speak out you get lumped in with the radical crazies.

Misc.

I have been following the horrific story about the 40 students in southern Mexico who were apparently shot by police and then buried in a mass grave in a feeble cover up attempt.  Certainly my first reaction was that Mexico is a dangerous place that is subject to extreme governmental violence against it's citizens.  But are they really different that the USA where thousands die from gunfire every year and where a good amount of them from police weapons?  Albuquerque's police haven't killed 40 human beings all at once, but over a couple of years they did more than half that many.  So, are we different?

I wasn't surprised at the US Supreme Court's decision to let stand Appeals court rulings that gay marriage is constitutional.  This court is ruled by libertarians and they really couldn't do much else.  They are treating this as a freedom issue.  I still haven't figured out how they came to the conclusion that corporations are people.  Maybe that signals that mergers should be allowed no matter what damage they do to consumers.  They have to be consistent. Mergers and marriages....kind of the same thing except marriage doesn't rely quite so much on greed.

Absentee voting starts today.  I will wait until early voting to go cast my ballot.  We need to elect Democrats to all of the lower offices to counteract the Governor.

Think New Mexico

Think New Mexico has come out with another great report on the lack of transparency in the health care industry.  This studious group is asking all the right questions about a very sick system that is supposed to help the sick.  For example, why does being treated for blood poisoning in Taos coast $19,556 while just over the hill in Las Vegas it costs $72,346?  Why do the poorest people pay the most for medical care in a poor state?

Of course this is a complex issue with a labyrinth of cause and effects, but at the end of the day it is one being manipulated by an immoral and criminal healthcare complex.  It is worth reading  the report.  And then get angry and call  your legislators to demand transparency.  I doubt the Governor gives a damn.

Overrun

It is bad enough to be overrun with nauseous and negative TV ads.  In the valley we are getting over run with critters.  These guys were on my back fence in the middle of the night and triggered the wildlife cam I own.  Not a very good camera, but it caught the grub hunters in the act.  They are tearing up back yards around here looking for meals.

Blunders on KNME PBS

I watched an interview that Gary King did on New Mexico in Focus Friday evening on KNME and it seems that the questioner has imbibed the Kool-Aid.  She talked about the oil and gas industry's 'contributions' to the permanent fund at the state land office.  A blunder!  That is the fund that spins off so much money for education.  It was an ignorant and embarrassing moment for that news show, New Mexico in Focus.

The oil and gas industry does not contribute to the permanent fund.  It pays for a product owned by the state land office.  That product is oil or gas.  It is not owned by the industry but by the trust set up by the constitution of the state.  Every year the oil and gas industry talks about how much money they turn over to the land office as if it were a gift.  They spend lots of money to make people think it is just an unfair gouging of their industry when it fact they really aren't paying enough.  On federal lands that oil and gas is owned by the taxpayers.

The second blunder of the evening was Gary King appearing with no makeup, and poor lighting provided by the inept KNME production crew.  Does anyone help Gary with these kinds of basic modern day necessities?  He looked absolutely cadaverous.  It certainly represents the sad state of affairs in that campaign.  King's answers were good ones, but these days that isn't enough.

Miscellaneous Mud

The attacks by Aubrey Dunn Jr. on Ray Powell in the Land Commissioner race may be one of the lowest things I have seen in TV ads yet.  Dunn scared up the family who lost the Land Office owned Dixon Apple Orchard near Cochiti and got them to say Ray Powell was at fault for fire and flood that destroyed the place.  You might remember they had no business insurance and tried to get the Land Office to pay them for $2 million dollars in losses of improvements.  Problem is they never built the improvements nor planted the orchard.  They were just trying to steal from the school children of this state to make up for their imprudent lack of insurance.  But since money rules politics and Ray doesn't fight back very hard, then he could actually lose this race because lies and mud work every time.

And then there is the Governor's ad on the fact that Gary King leases a building to the state for $1 a square foot in Moriarty.  The ad makes it seem like King is ripping off the taxpayer.  At $1 a square foot?  Ask any real estate agent or property manager if that is a rip off.  But since the Governor and her minions have no morals they just  aren't constrained in anything they say.

Encounter

I took Bobbi's Prius to be serviced this morning and a man came up to me and asked if I was Mayor Kinney!  Hilarious!  No, I said, but I had worked for him back in the 70's and then became Mayor myself in 1997.

He said he was a retired UNM professor with 37 years of tenure.  He asked me if I had ever seen the city and state in such bad shape.  I said no I had not.  He said he was thinking of moving out of state because no one seemed to be doing anything.  This is not the first time I have had this conversation in the last couple of weeks.

I have been catching up on the PBS series 'The Roosevelt's' which I recorded in full.  Last night the segment was on the first election of FDR during the height of the depression.  At his inauguration he gave the famous speech that made American citizens feel that someone cared for them and that things would get better.  His fireside chats were instrumental in convincing people that they needed to have faith in government to help solve the disastrous economic policies that led the country to the brink of destruction.

Oh, that we could find someone in New Mexico that could inspire such confidence.  Instead we have two bit ad men using millions of dollars to tear government down so their bosses don't have to pay taxes and support our democracy.  We are in deep trouble and as someone else said today these kind of conversations become self fulfilling prophecies.

Not Again

Harken back to 1969 to the University of New Mexico campus.  The fires of hell, in some peoples estimation, were loosed with the distribution of Lenore Kandel's poem 'Love Lust' in a poetry class.  The graphic poem about oral sex was viewed by some legislators and religious zealots as the end of civilization.
We are still here though and the controversy will begin again as hormone enraged students are invited to on campus seminars on better sex.  It is hilarious really and the kind of story that TV news and tabloid journalists will milk for the next two months.  Everything else that is really important will be ignored by the preference of modern day journalism's need for sex related stories.  Life is too short!

Reminder

I am hearing murmurings that the case of the guy who allegedly committed suicide in a dumpster after shooting a police dog might be resurrected for another look.  This is the 14th time I have written about this shooting that happened last spring.  The Office of Medical Investigator said it was a suicide although there was no powder residue on the man's clothing.  And I got a tip today that the bullet they removed from him was of a different size than the gun he supposedly used on  himself.  I also hear that APD is now being very reluctant to talk about the case, which is strange if they say it is a suicide.  Stay tuned.

Back from A Prospering State

I traveled back from Fort Collins yesterday after visiting our daughter.  She is in good spirits after having to hit the mattress for the next two months to keep here twin girls from being born too early.  Bobbi is still out there tending to her every need.

As I drove through that corridor from Pueblo to Fort Collins I couldn't help but think that I had entered another world.  The obvious booming economy and prosperity in Colorado is evident.  They have some leaders there in the Governor's office and in their city halls.  The politics is brutal in that purple state, but somehow the business community and political sphere seem to come together to get things done.

Coming back into the state Sunday afternoon, the first thing I was greeted with was a closed rest area on southbound I-25.  There were cars outside the locked gate and people going to the rear of the facility to get some relief.  On the way up on Friday the northbound rest area was open, but it was dirty and unkempt.  That is different from other trips when they were well tended.  What must people think who travel into our state?  The rest areas in Colorado were pristine.

So Susanna Martinez cuts back on the most essential services in order to keep taxes down for her right wing corporate supporters.  New Mexico can't take another leaderless four years.  But we will have to endure it and hope to pick up the pieces.

Foggy

Lots of fog between La Vegas and Raton this morning.

Up North

I am heading up to Fort Collins, Colorado this morning to join Bobbi in helping out our daughter Noelle.  She has been ordered to bed for the next few months because of twin girls wanting to be born early.  All on the weekend she and Luke were to move into a new home.  My job is to fix up batches of New Mexican food to be frozen into lunch size portions.  Also, a dozen Frontier breakfast burritos are in the freezer.   They seem to be her favorite comfort food.

We are hoping for the best.  Noelle, who is very fit, will need a lot of encouragement to stay rested and not be running marathons.  We will be helping with that too.

Bobbi retired from her Federal job with the US Forest Service on Tuesday after 28 years as an engineer and financial whiz.  I am so proud of her.  Less than twelve hours later she was headed up to Noelle's to start her job of grandmother.  She is a dynamo.

News Anorexic

I think I am becoming a TV news anorexic.  I haven't watched a local or national newscast in a week and I am finding out I just don't miss it much.  If I don't see another story on the chaos in the Middle East for the rest of my life it will be fine with me.

I am not reading anything about that violent culture in the newspapers any more.  It is old news and it never changes.  We bomb, they organize and try to develop toothpaste bombs.  They slaughter innocents as we do.  It is just what we are I guess.

As a post script, I am giving up in fighting loose dogs in our neighborhood park.  People truly think the dog leash  law doesn't apply to them because their dogs are "nice".  They say their dogs have had bad experiences in the city dog parks and so that makes it okay for them to unleash their dogs in a non dog park. I am sure most of them are nice dogs, until one of them isn't.  It is only a matter of time and then the city will face a massive lawsuit for not enforcing the leash law that was so carefully and laboriously hammered out some years ago.