This Lt. Governor's race has a lot of folks hiding in their back yards. I say that because I am doing the same thing. I don't know what to do. I have a couple of good friends in the race. They are State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino and former city Chief Administrative Officer Lawrence Rael. They both worked with me when I served as Albuquerque's Mayor. They both want me to support them and send them money. They are most likely both facing an uphill battle to win if they both stay in the race.
If I could take them to lunch at the same time here is the way I would handicap the race to them.
Jerry has a lot of progressives behind his candidacy, but he is a reluctant fund raiser. He also shares his progressive support with other assumed candidates in Santa Fe.
Lawrence will be an astute fund raiser. But he doesn't have an automatic constituency behind him. In fact some people are upset with him because of executive and bureaucratic decisions he has made through his government career. But the money part is important.
Given that there are many Hispanics in this race, and some popular ones in the north, then it will be hard to beat that one anglo candidate that will surely announce. So, the odds of Jerry or Lawrence winning are not that good. Unless one of them drops out. How can anyone who know either of these men ask them to do that? I wouldn't. So, I guess in the final analysis I have to sit it out for fear of losing a friend. I am not the only one in this situation and it is the nature of political primaries that this happens. Bummer.