Monday, October 27, 2008

Some Math

The early voting stats for Bernalillo County are lopsided. 34K Democrats have voted to 16K Republicans. The absentee voting is closer with 20K Democrats vs. 15K Republicans.(This is not how it usually works as Republicans always seem to win the absentees) It shows the ground game of the Obama, Udall and Heinrich campaigns are working.

But as an astute friend of mine points out this may turn around on election day a little bit. If the Democrats continue the heavy early and absentee vote there won't be as many going out on election day. So, the Republicans could actually win the balloting on November 4th. (This is the reverse of what usually happens.)

However, the Republicans have to be a little dismayed right now by the polls and the fervor of the Democratic campaigns. Maybe they will throw in the towel and just stay at home to await what seems to be the inevitable.

2 comments:

phat-chance said...

What I find remarkable is that in precinct 150 45% of the registered Dems have already voted. Could half or more vote prior to the end of early voting?

Benny the Icepick said...

//If the Democrats continue the heavy early and absentee vote there won't be as many going out on election day//

This is actually a strategy of Obama's. Everyone's anticipating a huge turnout this year - a McCain strategist said there may be 130 million Americans voting - which of course means long lines at the polls.

While some people are willing to endure quite a bit for their slice of democracy - my Mom spent twelve hours in the Cleveland rain in 2004 administering hot cocoa to everyone waiting in line outside - but others will give up at the sight of the huge queues.

Obama's campaign figures that if enough of his supporters vote early, it will be the Republicans having to wait in the long lines, and Republicans who will turn away without casting their votes.

Judging by the early voting tallies, that strategy seems to be working in their favor.