Monday, October 05, 2009

Predictions

My predictions on the non partizan Mayor's race in Albuquerque are as follows.

1. Republican Richard Berry will get in the runoff. Republicans could try to get him to that magic 40% to avoid it, but that is not likely.
2. Mayor Marty Chavez might get in the runoff.
3. Richard Romero might get in the runoff.
4. When the runoff election is held then the 'measure finance committees' will start raising oodles of money for the candidates in an attempt to elect their favorite while at the same time making a mockery of our public financing system.
5. Some pundits and bloggers will try to turn the little Albuquerque Mayor's race into an indictment of the Obama administration(all of eight months old). I haven't quite figured this out yet, but remember you heard it here.
6. The turnout in this election will be meager which means that having a 'get out the vote' cadre in the field is the tie breaker.
7. Who ever wins the runoff will face four years of hellish city finances.

1 comment:

steve said...

Mr. Baca,

Regarding prediction No. 4, it’s unlikely that Measure Finance Committees (MFCs) will play a significant role in a run-off election in the mayor’s race because of the matching mechanism in our city’s public campaign financing system. If, for example, an MFC spends $100,000 to denounce publicly financed candidate X, then X would receive $100,000 in matching funds from the city to counteract that expenditure. Because of this matching provision, if there is a runoff in this mayoral race, MFC expenditures both against or in favor of specific candidates would be largely pointless.

Steven Robert Allen
Executive Director
Common Cause New Mexico