Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Campaign Surprises

I was somewhat astonished when I read that Martin Chavez was flattened by Eric Griego in the campaign fund raising game for the democratic congressional primary election race.  One of my golf buddies yesterday who is politically astute said he wasn't surprised.  He blamed it on "Marty Fatigue" and that it will be hard for him to overcome it.  I think there is some truth to that but I also think his long time bullying of people, invisible to the media, is another cause.  Of course, it isn't over until it is over and Eric Griego should not think it is.

Of course I was not surprised that Martin Heinrich blew away Hector Balderas in the last quarters fundraising.  Hector had done better for a while than many people expected, but that was the easy money.  Now that the polling is showing Heinrich's strength in the general election it will spell an end to Hector's fundraising.  Hector has run a good race so far, but it might be time to admit the inevitable and save his money for a run for Attorney General or Governor in a couple of years.  I would help him with that as would a lot of Martin's supporters  because Hector has not succumbed to the negative campaigning that is so prevalent these days.


Donald F. Schiff said...

I think your golf buddy is correct. Marty's fundraising fiasco this quarter shows that Marty Fatigue is widespread. After the pre-primary convention, Marty's camp spun his poor showing to fatigue among party insiders, who have never been especially friendly to him outside of his loyal faction. It's apparently true for donors as well, and probably for primary voters as well.

Marty's great advantage in name recognition is balanced by the fact that much of it is negative. Moreover, Marty's supporters are not the kind who go out and knock on doors. Eric's are, which might well make the difference in the race.

Michelle Lujan Grisham is only now building her field operation, which explains her big burn last quarter. What's left of her COH lead is a result of a personal loan to her campaign, which may be nothing more than puffery. Eric has the momentum in fundraising and field, as well as virtually all the organizational endorsements. He and Michelle are basically tied in COH, but Eric has the fundraising momentum and a well-developed field operation which Michelle lacks.

IMHO, Marty is fading and Michelle has shown nothing beyond Patrician entitlement and gender identity politics. I don't see how that wins her the primary. On the other hand, Eric is riding a crest of progressive enthusiasm combined with adequate fundraising and good campaign choices. I hope it's a winning combination for him. We've yet to see the TV ads, but the NM-1 congressional race is already becoming interesting.

With regard to the Senate race, I completely agree that Hector Balderas should withdraw before the ballots are printed. The handwriting is on the wall; he just can't compete. All he can do now is make Martin spend money which would be better used to defeat Heather Weasel in November. I like Hector, but I also think Governor or Attorney General in two years is a better fit for him.

Mike Goodenow said...

Of course Martin Heinrich will have the support of most of us Hector Balderas supporters if he wins the primary.

Some of us find Hector Balderas to be more independent. (No campaign cash from PACs for corporations or lobbyists.)

Some of us find Hector Balderas to be bolder on education and training -- an important issue.

Some of us find Hector Balderas to be more credible on deficit reduction.

Some of us find Hector Balderas to be courageous in standing up for reform and accountability in government and corporations and cracking down on fraud.

And some of us find Hector Balderas an inspirational leader.

Sure, Hector Balderas will make a great Governor if he doesn't win in this primary. But he's raised $1 million and we the Democratic voters of the state have a right to our say in the matter.

Mike Goodenow