Monday, September 15, 2014

Part Deux

The Journal Poll this morning shows Senator Tom Udall with a comfortable lead over his republican opponent and war profiteer Alan Weh.  Udall, a proponent of taking corporate money out of elections, will most likely win his race.

I wonder what the critics of the Research and Polling results on the Governor's race have to say today.  Is this poll wrong too?  I am looking forward to more results coming up, especially on issue questions.  They will be dribbling out for a week or so if the pattern from past years is followed.

I am not sure the congressional races will be polled.  The only one up for grabs is down in the southern district where the oil and gas tool Steve Pearce reigns.  I hope Rocky Lara gives him a good run.  That is a tough race because Pearce wins with slightly more than 2-1 in the oil patch and that is hard to over come in Dona Ana County where Lara should shine.  But it could happen.  Harry Teague did  it in a presidential election year, but remember he was only there for one term until Pearce took back that seat.  Teague was a oil guy too.  But, Lara has put on an impressive fundraising campaign and has impressive support.


Anonymous said...

After viewing Lara's TV ad, which is very amateurish and ineffective, I believe she has virtually no chance of unseating Pearce.

Anonymous said...

How things have changed. Bigaman and Domenici use to consistently poll in the mid sixties and that was a comfortable lead against their opponents. Udall comes in the poll with 51% and it wont be exactly a landslide if he has in fact peaked. It is still Udall's race to loose, but if Weh pumps in $2 million from his oil and gas buddies with negative ads, Udall could be in trouble, just like his first cousin Mark Udall in Colorado.

The Governors race is nothing more than a repeat on a state wide level of the Albuquerque Mayors race 10 months ago. A so called popular incumbent who has done absolutely nothing to merit re-election, who has a huge financial advantage over the opponent, a sympathetic press and a very low voter turn out with Democrats abandoning their candidate while the Republicans show up to vote. Once again Brian Sanderoff runs his poll for the Journal setting up the fall and the death null begins. Martinez even hires Berry's campaign staff in the form of Mitt Romney's former fundraiser, Berry's press spokesman and of course Jay Mc Clusky to run his nasty little ads.

A Martinez landslide may just mean there will be coattails for the Republicans and the House goes Republican and Duran holds on to Secretary of State. Hell Robert Aragon could also beat Tim Eickenberg based on surname alone.

Martinez will try to go national, but being a lost VP candidate does not get you far ala Sarah Palin. Martinez will be looking to take on Martin Heinrick in 4 years for the US Senate and it will be the costliest campaign in New Mexico history. Lets hope Martin gets a little more serious about his job and stays away from reality shows with Republicans on desert islands and spends that time where it really counts: with his two very young sons!